Ask Archer: Is Trump planning to rename his Washington residence the "Bling House?"
A reader asks: Is Donald Trump planning to rename his Washington residence the “Bling House”?
Archer replies: It was W.B. Yeats who said that “The world is full of magical things, patiently waiting for our senses to grow sharper.” It’s full of odd coincidences, too. In the markets, these are sometimes thought of as “correlations.” Many strange things turn out to be correlated.
In some cases, these are observational, based on our own limited dataset. In others, it’s just the opposite – the ability to access and analyze massive amounts of data uncovers correlations invisible to the naked eye. Look hard enough and you can find almost anything.
Perplexity defines a correlation as a “statistical relationship between variables that appear significant but have no logical or causal connection.” A search for such phenomena provides multiple examples, including:
The number of Nicholas Cage movies released in a given year and swimming pool drownings.
Sunscreen sales vs. traffic accidents.
The oscillating distance between Uranus and Saturn and UFO sightings in Texas (the two planets move in elliptical orbits and the distance between them therefore varies, per Tyler Vigen).
Here’s another one to ponder – the price of gold and changes to the décor in the White House. A recent before and after photo of the Oval Office in The Wall Street Journal showed the addition of significant new bling. Gold is everywhere in keeping the known predilections of our Commander in Chief. Is this good? Let’s just say NOKD.
Note that at the same time, the price of the yellow metal has gone from about $2,700/ounce on the day Trump was inaugurated to north of $3,300/ounce today, a rise of a little less than 25%. Correlation or causation? You be the judge.
Of course there are other possibilities … tariffs, the fall in the dollar, the specter of returning inflation, widespread chaos. As to the general debasement of standards, Trump may be cause; he may be effect. Hard to say. But one thing we know for sure is that he arrived on the scene at the beginning of a new Barnum & Bailey era, three-ring circus in tow.
He also arrived not long after the rollout of now-nearly-ubiquitous “prop” (for proposition) betting as popularized by online gambling forums. If you’re looking at getting in on the action, here’re a few ideas to consider (not gambling advice):
The delta between tariff dollars raised YTD vs. what Trump says they’ve raised. (Take the under.)
A bet on the size of the new American flags Trump plans to install on either side of the White House. Two possibilities: – “yuuge” or “really yuuuge.”
Likelihood that the next male child born to the Trump family will be named “Patek Phillippe.”
Choose wisely.
Woof!